Ballistic Missiles: Urgent New Threats

Concerns about the availability of ballistic missiles of increasing range center on North Korea, Iran, and South Asia.

North Korea

North Korea's August 1998 test of the three-stage version of the Taepodong-1 missile underscored its growing missile proliferation threat. The Taepodong-1 is a prototype satellite launch vehicle that could potentially be used as an intercontinental missile able to carry a light chemical or biological weapon payload to the United States. The North Korean test motivated the Clinton administration to accelerate work on U.S. missile defenses. Following negotiations with the United States in September 1999, North Korea agreed to halt flight tests of its missiles as long as bilateral negotiations "aimed to improve relations with the U.S." continue. Soon thereafter, the United States eased some of the economic sanctions it had imposed against North Korea under the Trading with the Enemy Act. In January 2003, days after announcing its withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), North Korea threatened to end the moratorium on ballistic missile testing. This threat was later repeated in March 2003, following Japan's first launch of two reconnaissance satellites into orbit.  North Korea has persisted in the development of the Taepodong-2 missile, which has a greater range than the Taepodong-1. In addition, North Korea has reportedly exported ballistic missiles and related technologies to a number of countries, advancing the recipient countries missile programs.

On July 4, 2006, North Korea tested seven missiles, including a long-range Taepodong missile that blew up seconds into the launch. The UN Security Council condemned the missile tests and imposed economic sanctions against Pyongyang through UN Resolution 1695 on July 15. On October 9, North Korea announced an underground test of a nuclear device, and it has threatened to test a nuclear-tipped missile. In April 2007, North Korea displayed a new intermediate-range ballistic missile, named Musudan, with an estimated range between 2,500 and 5,000 kilometers. In September 2008, the international press reported that for the past eight years, North Korea has built a second site for launching long-range missiles; reports also suggested that North Korea had tested the engine on a long-range Taeopondong-2 missile at this new West coast launch facility. U.S. State Department officials noted that if a test took place it would violate UN sanctions banning North Korea from testing ballistic missiles and components.

Iran's initial test of the Shahab-3 intermediate-range missile in July 1998 was another major development. This intermediate-range missile, based on the Nodong missile supplied by North Korea, enables Iran to attack Israel with WMD. The United States believes that, in addition to North Korea, Russia and China helped Iran produce the Shabab-3, a liquid-fueled missile with an 800-mile (1,300-kilometer) range, capable of carrying an 800-1,200 kilogram warhead. The missile could possibly carry a chemical or nuclear separating warhead. In July 2003, Iran conducted its eighth test of the Shabab-3, the first test in which the missile flew to its maximum estimated range of 800 miles. The missile was then given to Iran's Revolutionary Guards and experts believe that a number of Shabab-3 missiles have been deployed. In August 2004, Iran tested another version of the Shabab-3, which could possibly strike all of Israel as well as U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.  With help and technology from North Korea, Iran is  reportedly developing more advanced versions of the Shabab ballistic missile with greater ranges, over 1,200 miles. Iran's ability to produce longer range missiles coupled with its plan to pursue a complete nuclear fuel cycle, raise concerns that it plans to develop nuclear warheads for its Shabab-3 missiles. 

On July 9, 2008, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps claimed to have test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles, including one with the range to reach Israel. Iran’s state-run media stated that the launches included a number of Fatah, Zelzal, and Shahab-3 missiles; however doctored photos of the launch released by Iranian media raised questions about the real success and significance of the tests. Western analysts concluded that rather than testing a new, improved Shahab-3 missile, Iran had launched an older version. A little over a month later on August 17, Iran claimed have to test-fired a new rocket capable of carrying a satellite into orbit; such a rocket could potentially deliver nuclear warheads. U.S. officials said that Iran’s announcement, like several of its similar claims of missile launches, was overblown and that the rocket launching had failed.

Danger in South Asia

India’s Agni-1 Successfully Tested,
October 2007
www.drdo.com/agnitrials.html

In recent years, India and Pakistan have acquired a variety of ballistic missiles able to carry nuclear warheads. These capabilities increase the ability of the two countries to wage nuclear war and conduct surprise attacks, creating a potentially unstable situation. On August 6, 2005, India and Pakistan agreed to notify each other before conducting ballistic missile tests, and to establish a hotline between their foreign ministries to prevent an accidental nuclear exchange. Since then, the two countries have each tested several nuclear capable missiles, spurring a missile race in South Asia. In April 2007, India successfully tested its longest range ballistic missile, the Agni-3, which can strike targets up to 3,500 kilometers away. The Agni-3, a two-stage, solid-propellant missile, was launched from a rail-mobile platform. Experts say the Agni-3 could carry a 300-kiloton nuclear warhead all the way to Beijing, or to the Middle East.  In early 2008, Pakistan responded by conducting test launches of its nuclear-capable Shaheen-1 midrange ballistic missile and its long-range Shaheen-2 missile, which can reach targets in the interior of India. The Shaheen-2 is a two-stage, solid-fuel weapon capable of delivering a nuclear or conventional warhead up to 1,280 miles. As part of the on-going missile race, India countered by testing its nuclear capable Agni-1 in late March 2008 and its 3,000-kilometer-range surface-to-surface nuclear capable Agni-3 missile in May.

Further Reading -
North Korea:

	NTI, DPRK Missile Overview
	CRS, Andrew Feickert, "Missile Survey: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles of Foreign Countries"
	CNS, East Asian Nonproliferation Program, "CNS Special Report on North Korean Ballistic Missile Capabilities"
	CRS, Steven Hildreth, "North Korean Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States"
	WMD Insights, Daniel Pinkston, "North Korea Displays Ballistic Missiles During Military Parade"
	The Nonproliferation Review, Daniel Pinkston, "Domestic Politics and Stakeholders in the North Korean Missile Development Program"
	Wisconsin Project, "North Korea Missile Update -- 2005"

Further Reading - Iran:

	NTI, Iran Missile Overview
	CRS, Kenneth Katzman, "Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses"
	CNS, Iran Special Collection
	Arms Control Association, Peter Crail, "Iran Space Launch Raises Missile Concerns"
	CRS, Andrew Feickert, "Iran's Ballistic Missile Capabilities"

Further Reading - South Asia:

	CRS, Andrew Feickert & K. Alan Kronstadt, "Missile Proliferation and the Strategic Balance in South Asia"
	Arms Control Today, Richard Speier, "U.S. Space Aid to India: On a 'Glide Path' to ICBM Trouble?"
	WMD Insights, Sharad Joshi, "India and Pakistan Missile Race Surges On"
	WMD Insights, Anya Loukianova & Sharad Joshi, "India Expands Foreign Collaboration in Missile and Space Program, Tests Missile Defense System"
	WMD Insights, Sharad Joshi, "Pakistan's Missile Tests Highlight Growing South Asia Nuclear Arms Race"