Taiwan currently does not possess nuclear weapons, although it has attempted to acquire them in the past. Taiwan -
as the Republic of China (ROC) - signed the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968.
After the seats for China at the United Nations (UN) - General Assembly
and Security Council - reverted from the Taipei government to Beijing in
1971, Taiwan signed a trilateral agreement with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the
United States to abide by the terms of the NPT. Taiwan has since implemented
the IAEA's "Program 93+2" safeguards. Despite persistent suspicions of
offensive and defensive chemical and biological weapons (CBW) programs, there is
no conclusive evidence that Taiwan developed or deployed chemical or
biological weapons. Taiwan is not a member of the Missile Technology Control
Regime. The island is currently developing cruise and ballistic missiles that
can reach the interior of China. On February 2, 2007, the island tested the Hsiung-feng IIE cruise missile that
is capable of reaching Shanghai or the Three Gorges dam. Despite some speculation, there is no evidence that Taiwan is seeking to arm these
weapons with nuclear warheads. Recent analysis determines that it would take
Taiwan between one and eight years to develop an intact nuclear warhead; however most analysts agree that under the current political situation, Taiwan is very unlikely to "go nuclear."
The island of Taiwan is claimed by both the
People's Republic of China and the ROC on Taiwan. It is administered by the
ROC. Taiwan is not generally recognized as a sovereign country internationally
and is therefore not considered eligible for membership in nonproliferation
treaties or export control regimes. The United States has taken an ambivalent
official stance on Taiwan's status, neither recognizing the sovereignty of
Taiwan, nor recognizing the PRC's claim to sovereignty over the island.
China's claim to the island is bolstered by the fact that China,
as a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has veto power over admittance
to the UN. Beyond veto power, the PRC has economic power worldwide to pressure
key nations not to recognize Taiwan.
While the United States acknowledged in the
three Joint Communiqués with China that there is only "One
China" - the PRC - the United States has stated that the
conflict over the status of Taiwan should be resolved by peaceful means, through
cross-Strait dialogue, and with the support of the people on Taiwan. The Taiwan
Relations Act (TRA), enacted by the U.S. Congress in 1979, states that the
United States will, inter alia, "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive
character," "maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to
force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the
social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan," and "the United States will
make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such
quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a self-defense
capability."
China currently has clear military
superiority compared to Taiwan, and without U.S. help, the island could not
defend itself against an attack by Beijing. However, the TRA does not commit the United States to come to
Taiwan's defense if Taiwan takes unilateral measures to change the status
quo - these measures would include declaring independence or restarting a
nuclear weapons program. Though the U.S. Congress has consistently approved
weapons sales to Taiwan since 1979, the island's legislative assembly has
not always approved the budget for arms purchases from the United States. U.S.
officials have expressed concern that the island is not taking adequate measures
to promote stable and balanced cross-Strait relations.
Cross-Strait relations were more
complicated during the term of Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian (2000-2008), who actively pursued measures that would take the island closer to
independence. These measures include freezing the National Unification Council
and the National Unification Guidelines, proposing to change the official name
of the ROC to the Republic of Taiwan, seeking to adopt a new constitution, and
pushing to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan. In 2005, the PRC
passed the Anti-Secession Law, which authorized the use of force to take back
Taiwan if all peaceful means to reunite the island with the mainland became
exhausted.
Compared to the low point of cross-Strait elections during the Chen presidency, current relations between Taipei and Beijing are progressing positively. In January 2008 Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was defeated in legislative elections and in March 2008 the DPP lost the presidency to the Nationalist Party (KMT) with the election of KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou. Ma’s policies on China and cross-Strait relations are moderate and support the maintaining the status quo.
Taiwan does not possess nuclear weapons. Under the leadership of Chiang Kai-shek, the island
built its first nuclear reactor at National Tsinghua University in 1956. After the PRC
conducted its first nuclear test in October 1964, Taipei began its own
covert nuclear weapons program under the direction of the Institute of Nuclear
Energy Research (INER) and the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology.
The "Hsin Chu" program, code-named after the city where Taiwan's first nuclear
reactor was located, involved procurement and operation of a heavy water
reactor, a heavy water production plant, a reprocessing research laboratory, and
a plutonium separation plant. The United States convinced Taiwan to give up its
nuclear weapons program in 1978.
In 1987, under the leadership of Chiang's son, Chiang Ching-kuo, Taiwan started a second covert nuclear weapons program.
In this case, IAEA inspectors discovered that fuel rods
were missing from one of Taiwan's nuclear power facilities. In 1987, former
deputy director of INER Colonel Chang Hsien-yi defected to the United States and
revealed detailed information about the secret program. Taiwan shut down the
second nuclear weapons program in 1988. Since 1988, the Taiwanese leadership has
consistently maintained that the island will not seek nuclear weapons in the
future. Taiwan's democratic government and freedoms of speech and the
press would make it very difficult to keep secret any future nuclear weapons work.
Taiwan now possesses six nuclear power reactors housed in three nuclear power plants with a total capacity of 5,144
megawatts. The power plants use low grade uranium obtained from the United States and South
Africa or transferred from a third country via the United States. It has no enrichment
capability. Although plagued by domestic opposition and delays, a fourth nuclear
power plant is currently under construction. Taiwan possesses many of the technological
expertise to develop nuclear weapons, but would face many obstacles in doing,
namely U.S. and international pressure, and the
threat of a pre-emptive strike by China.
Taiwan has been accused of making efforts to acquire a biological weapons (BW) capability, including by agencies in the U.S. government. In 2001, a report from the Canadian Security and Intelligence Service also claimed that Taiwan developed three dozen types of bacteria, apparently for weaponization purposes. This credibility of this report has been widely questioned and the claims have been vigorously denied by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND). Taiwan signed the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1972 while still holding the China's seat in the United Nations, but the island's role in this treaty is currently not officially recognized. Taiwan is not been permitted to join the Australia Group.
In 1989, U.S. government officials testified before that Congress that Taiwan could have acquired an offensive chemical weapons (CW) capability. While acknowledging production of small quantities of CW agents for defense research purposes, Taiwanese authorities have consistently denied any offensive CW capabilities. Still, rumors persist that Taiwan has stockpiled sarin in two locations: Tsishan (Kaohsiung) and in Kuanhsi, Hsinchu County. Chemical defense research and development is conducted at the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology. Taiwan cannot join the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) nor the Australia Group.
Taiwan's short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) program is based at the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, which has developed a range of missiles including the Hsiung Feng series of anti-ship and land-attack missiles, the Tien Chien series of air-to-air missiles, and the Tien Kung series of surface-to-air missiles. Taiwan also possesses U.S.-made anti-tactical Patriot missiles (PAC-2) and Hellfire rockets. Budget disputes in the Taiwanese legislature have prevented Taiwan from purchasing the more advanced U.S. anti-tactical PAC-3 batteries.
The above-mentioned systems have provided Taiwanese scientists with experience and a technological base in areas such as composite materials and guidance and fire control systems, which are essential for development of longer range surface-to-surface missiles. The liquid-fueled, single-stage Ching Feng has a range of 130 km with a 270 kg payload. Initially deployed in the early 1980s, it is unclear how many Ching Feng missiles were built and whether they are still operational. The Tien Chi, first test-fired in 1997, is a solid-fueled, two-stage missile with a 300 km range that can reach China's southeastern coast. The Tien Chi incorporates global positioning system technology and has an estimated payload of 100-500 kg. One report claims that as many as 50 Tien Chi missiles have been deployed on Tungyin Island and at an unidentified second location. The Hsiung Feng II supersonic anti-ship missile has a range of 80km. The anti-ship missile Hsiung Feng III, tested in 2004 and 2005, has a range of 200km and travels at twice the speed of sound. The Hsiung Feng IIE surface-to-surface cruise missile-which was tested in 2005 and 2007 and has yet to be deployed currently has a range of 600km. Many expect further development of the missile to increase its range to 1,000km, making it capable of striking several military installations and large cities on the Chinese mainland, including Shanghai. The Hsiung Feng IIE can attack multiple targets and launch warheads from the air. Development of the Tien Ma, a ballistic missile with a range of 950 km, was reportedly discontinued in the early 1980s due to U.S. pressure.
The Chinese mainland has more than 800 ballistic missiles targeted at Taiwan, including M-series ballistic and cruise missiles. The Taiwanese government has invested heavily in the development of an anti-tactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system designed specifically to intercept the missiles deployed across the Strait.
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Updated July 2008 |
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