North Korea is the most advanced of the "late missile developers" and since the demise of the Soviet Union has probably become the greatest exporter of complete ballistic missile systems, components, and technology. Pyongyang received foreign assistance over the years, most notably from the former Soviet Union and China, but the complete details of all foreign assistance are still sketchy. Considering North Korea’s long-standing interest in advancing its missile capabilities, its missile program is notable in that there have been relatively few flight tests. North Korea has deployed about 600-800 Scud missile variants, about 150-200 Nodong missiles, and perhaps 10 Paektusan-1 missiles, which are more commonly referred to as Taepodong-1 missiles.
On April 5, 2009, at 11:20 am local time, North Korea launched an Unha-2 space launch vehicle—which is a modified version of the Taepodong-2 (Paektusan-2). Although North Korean media immediately claimed that the satellite had been placed into orbit, no orbit was detected by outside observers. Launch of the three-stage rocket was seen as a technical failure with the first stage splashing down in the water between the Korean peninsula and Japan and the remaining stages, along with payload, falling into the Pacific Ocean.
In early February 2009, media reports had indicated that North Korea was planning a test of its long-range missile system. U.S. satellites had observed movement of equipment indicative of preparations for a Taepodong-2 (Paektusan-2) missile launch. The Taepodong-2 (Paektusan-2) had not been successfully tested but was suspected of having a range of 6,700 km.
According to Jane’s Information Group reporting of 11 September 2008, North Korea has been building a new long-range missile launch site for the past eight years.[1] In contrast to the older Musudan-ri facility which has limited capabilities, this new installation, located on the west coast of North Korea, includes a movable launch pad and a 10-story tall tower capable of supporting North Korea’s largest ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles. South Korean Defense Minister, Lee Sang Hee confirmed the reports and stated that “about 80 percent of the work has been completed and we’re watching it closely.”[2]
On July 5, 2006, North Korea flight tested seven ballistic missiles, including the long-range Taepodong-2 [Paektusan-2]. The Taepodong-2, failed about 40-42 seconds. The missile exercise included the launch of four short-range (300-600 kilometers) Hwasŏng (Scud) variants and two medium-range (approximately 1,300 kilometers) Nodong missiles, launched from Kitaeryŏng, Anbyŏn-kun, Kangwŏn Province, about 40 kilometers south of Wŏnsan, a port city on North Korea’s east coast. The North Koreans also tested a Scud-ER (“extended range”) with a range of about 850 kilometers. The North Korean Foreign Ministry referred to the 5 July launches as part of the “Korean People’s Army’s routine military exercises to increase the nation’s capacity for self-defense.” The Ministry emphasized that North Korea is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and is not bound by any international laws or agreements restricting its missile tests. However, on 15 July, 2006, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted Resolution 1695, which demands that North Korea suspend all missile-related activities and requires all UN member states to prevent the transfer of missile-related materials and technologies to North Korea.
In 2003, U.S. satellite imagery detected a new ballistic missile under development that appears to be based upon the Soviet R-27 (SS-N-6), which is a liquid-fueled submarine-launched ballistic missile with a range of at least 2,500km. The land-based version is 12 meters long and 1.5 meters in diameter with a range of 2,500-4,000km. North Korea reportedly considered displaying 10 of the missiles and five mobile launchers on 9 September 2003, which is the anniversary of the founding of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). However, the display was apparently cancelled for political reasons. In May 2004, a report indicated that North Korea was building two underground bases for the new missile, and that construction of the bases was about 70-80 percent complete.
On 24 February and 10 March 2003, North Korea tested surface-to-ship cruise missiles on the east coast. The missile test on 24 February was considered provocative because it was only one day before the inauguration of South Korean President Roh Mu Hyun, and the same day that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell arrived in Seoul to attend the inauguration. Both missiles landed in the Sea of Japan (East Sea), but the flight tests were not considered a violation of North Korea's ballistic missile flight test moratorium.
North Korea’s missile exports are a significant source of hard currency for Pyongyang. On 10 December 2002, Spanish and U.S. naval ships intercepted the North Korean ship Sŏsan en route to Yemen. The Sŏsan cargo included 15 Scud missiles, conventional warheads, and 85 drums of "inhibited red fuming nitric acid," which is used as an oxidizer for Scud missile fuel. North Korea declared the interception of the Sŏsan an "act of piracy" and demanded "compensation for the losses and personal trauma experienced by the crew members."
History
North Korea first entered the field of rockets and missiles in the early 1960s with the production of multiple rocket launchers.[3] By 1965, Kim Il Sung had is suspected to have made the political decision to seek an indigenous ballistic missile production capability. That year marked the establishment of the Hamhŭng Military Academy, where North Korean personnel began to receive training in missile development.[4] In general, the 1960s marked the procurement of rockets, surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), anti-ship missiles, and the initial development of human resources to support a missile program.
There were a number of factors that likely motivated the North Korean leadership to acquire and develop ballistic missile capabilities. First, U.S. intervention at the outbreak of the Korean War thwarted Kim Il Sung's attempt to unify Korea by force. Kim might have viewed ballistic missiles as weapons to deter or defeat U.S. military forces in a subsequent conflict. Second, rocky alliance relationships with both the Soviet Union and China caused Kim to question the credibility of Moscow's and Beijing's commitments to aid Pyongyang in the event of another war. Kim Il Sung had been disappointed with Moscow's limited support during the Korean War, and he was appalled by Khrushchev's "collapse or cowardice" during the Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962.
In a probable response to perceived alliance uncertainty, and to the military coup d'état in South Korea in 1961, the Korean Workers' Party (KWP) Central Committee adopted a policy in December 1962 to "modernize" the military, and ballistic missiles were likely on the list of desired weapons systems. The KWP also held a party leader conference in October 1966, at which Kim Il Sung declared the need to develop military and economic capabilities in tandem.[5] However, this policy actually began to split the military economy, or "second economy," from its civilian counterpart. The Second Economic Committee was established in the early 1970s to oversee the promotion of domestic defense industries, and this institutional arrangement enabled the state to increasingly divert more resources to the missile development program.
Early Ballistic Missile Development
During the late 1960s, Pyongyang acquired surface-to-ship missiles and FROG-5/7 rockets from Moscow,[6] and by 1970, Beijing was delivering surface-to-ship missiles, SAMs, and technical assistance.[7] Although North Korea sought to acquire Soviet ballistic missiles as early as the mid-1960s, Moscow declined, at least initially, so Pyongyang turned to Beijing for help to produce ballistic missiles. In September 1971, North Korea signed an agreement with China to acquire, develop, and produce ballistic missiles and other weapon systems; however, substantial cooperation did not begin until about 1977 when Korean engineers were able to participate in a joint program to develop the DF-61.[8]
The development of North Korean human resources was necessary, but not sufficient for the relatively rapid progress in Pyongyang's missile development program. North Korea, as practically every national missile program since the introduction of the German V-2, has relied upon the transfer of hardware and technology from more advanced producers. North Korea obtained Soviet-made Scud-B missiles to begin a reverse-engineering program, but the timing and conditions of the procurement are still unclear. The earliest reported possibility of North Korea acquiring Scud-Bs is from the Soviet Union in 1972.[9] However, the general view is that Egypt provided the first Scud-Bs to North Korea in 1976, or at some time between 1979 and 1981.[10]
Timeline of North Korean Hwasŏng-5 (Scud-B; R-17) Development
Source
First Scud Imports
Initial Production
Flight Test
First Exports
Sources: Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999; Chang Chun Ik, Pukhan Haek-Missile Chŏnjaeng (Seoul: Sŏmundang, May 1999); Federation of American Scientists, <http://www.fas.org>; personal interview data; SIPRI, SIPRI Yearbook 1989: World Armaments and Disarmament (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989); Hajime Ozu, Missile 2000 Reference Guide to World Missile Systems (Tokyo: Shinkigensha, 2000).
Reports generally cite the number of missiles received as "a few." The ambiguity in the number and timing of the delivery makes it difficult to extrapolate or estimate the development path of what is generally considered an indigenous reverse-engineering program. However, the later the delivery and the smaller the number of missiles received, the more likely that North Korea was dependent upon foreign technical assistance. This assistance could range from licensed production to covert assistance from firms or individuals. Many questions about foreign assistance may only be of historical interest for the Hwasŏng-5/6 (Scud-B/C) programs because Pyongyang's production of these short-range missiles is probably sustainable without foreign assistance. However, foreign materials and technical assistance could be critical for the production and development of North Korea's intermediate-range and long-range missile programs.
By 1984, North Korea had produced and flight-tested an indigenous version of the Scud-B, and in 1985 Pyongyang reached an agreement with Tehran to obtain financial assistance for missile development and production in exchange for Iran's option to purchase North Korean missiles in the future.[11] Iran's ballistic missile "war of the cities" with Iraq created an opportunity for North Korea to earn foreign exchange and increase scale economies in production. Furthermore, Tehran's use of the Hwasŏng-5 provided Pyongyang with performance data that would have required extensive flight testing in Korea. Although North Korea avoided the political costs of conducting flight tests at home, Pyongyang's missile exports had destabilizing effects in the Middle East.
During 1985-1986, North Korea had begun to construct missile bases for the Hwasŏng-5, which entered serial production by 1987. As soon as, or shortly after, mass production of the Hwasŏng-5 began, North Korea began development of the Hwasŏng-6 (Scud-C), before rapidly starting the Nodong development program. The deployment of the Hwasŏng-5, production of the Hwasŏng-6, and the beginning of the Nodong program all coincide around 1987-1989. This prompt sequence of development is remarkable, and historically unprecedented for a small developing country. Late-industrializing countries can reduce the time required for industrialization, and the same is true in the area of missiles. However, accelerated development is a function of foreign technology transfers, so Pyongyang's extremely rapid progress in missile development suggests a high level of foreign technical assistance.
By the late 1980s, North Korea had begun construction for intermediate-range missiles that were still under development. Around 1990-1991, serial production of the Hwasŏng-6 began, or at about the same time the first Nodong prototypes were built. Meanwhile, Pyongyang began to provide technology transfers, and even turnkey Scud factories, to countries in the Middle East.
Intermediate-Range Missile Development In the late 1980s, North Korea's Second Natural Science Institute began development of the so-called "Nodong" intermediate-range ballistic missile. U.S. reconnaissance satellites detected a Nodong on the launch pad at the Musudan-ri missile test site in May 1990, but subsequent imagery revealed burn marks on the pad, which indicated a probable test failure. Nevertheless, North Korea reportedly was able to obtain Nodong sales contracts with Libya, Iran, and possibly with Syria and Pakistan before the Nodong was successfully flight tested in late May 1993. Although the Nodong was later flight tested in Iran and Pakistan, the 1993 flight test is still Pyongyang's only test. It is worth noting that North Korea was unable to test the Nodong to full range for geographic reasons. Nevertheless, Pyongyang began to deploy the Nodong shortly after the 1993 flight test, and about 100 have now been deployed to North Korean missile bases.
As North Korea was nearing completion of the Nodong's development, engineers were also working on the Paektusan-1, which is more commonly known as the "Taepodong-1." The Paektusan-1 does not have a new airframe or engine design, but it is a two-stage missile with a Nodong as the first stage and Hwasŏng (Scud) variant as the second stage. The Paektusan-1 was flight tested in a space launch configuration on 31 August 1998, but it failed to place a small satellite named "Kwangmyŏngsŏng-1" into earth orbit. The space launch vehicle (SLV) version of the Paektusan-1 included a solid-fueled third stage that failed during the 1998 launch.
In the mid-1990s, North Korea had begun design and development of the Paektusan-2, more commonly known as the "Taepodong-2," which has a new airframe for the first stage, and reportedly has a Nodong for its second stage. In July 1998, the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States, headed by Donald Rumsfeld, reported that North Korea "was hard at work on the Taepodong-2 ballistic missile and could deploy the missile within five years." Although Pyongyang agreed to a missile flight test moratorium in September 1999, North Korean engineers continued design work and static testing of the Paektusan-2. On July 5, 2006, North Korea lifted the moratorium and tested seven ballistic missiles during an exercise. The Paektusan-2 failed after 40-42 seconds of flight, but U.S. intelligence estimates that it could deliver a small payload to the western part of the continental United States.
Key Sources: [1] Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Tim Brown, “Ready For Launch? North Korea’s New Missile Facility,” Jane’s Defence Weekly, 11 September 2008. [2] "N Korea Builds New Missile Launch Pad: S Korean Minister," Agence France Presse, 11 September 2008, <http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iv5xQXa22tURCtvc3PyG0_DVsAOQ>. [3] Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 719. [4] Yun Dŏk Min, "Mi-Puk Missile Hyŏpsang'ŭi Hyŏnhwanggwa Chŏnmang," ROK IFANS policy paper, 22 November 2000, p. 2; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 2; Testimony of Ko Yŏng Hwan, former North Korean Foreign Ministry official, before the US Senate, 21 October 1997. [5] The Second Machine Industry Ministry, under the party secretary in charge of military industries, was established shortly after Kim's declaration. The Second Machine Industry Ministry was renamed the "Second Economic Committee" in 1971. The Second Economic Committee is responsible for the production of all armaments. See Joseph S. Bermudez, The Armed Forces of North Korea (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2001), pp. 45-46; "Minsaeng Hŭisaengwi Kunsusanŏp Pŏnch'ang," Hankyoreh Shinmun, 31 March 1997, p. 6, in KINDS, <http://www.kinds.or.kr>; Kim Kwang In, "'Twaejigongjang' Sŏn Missile Saengsan," Chosun Ilbo, 11 February 2001, <http://www.chosun.com>; "'Pyongyang Pig Factory' Produces Missiles," Chosun Ilbo, 12 February 2001, <http://www.chosun.com>. [6] Chang Chun Ik, Pukhan Haek-Missile Chŏnjaeng (Seoul: Sŏmundang, May 1999), pp. 246-247; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, pp. 4-5; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "The North Korean 'Scud B' Program," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1989, pp. 203-207; Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 749. [7] Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "The North Korean 'Scud B' Program," Jane's Soviet Intelligence Review, May 1989, pp. 203-207; Christopher F. Foss, editor, Jane's Armour and Artillery 1991-92 (Coulsdon, Surrey: Jane's Information Group, 1991), p. 749; Gordon Jacobs and Tim McCarthy, "China's Missile Sales—Few Changes for the Future," Jane's Intelligence Review, December 1992, p. 560. [8] The DF-61 was designed to be a liquid-propelled ballistic missile with a range of about 600km while delivering a 1,000kg warhead. The program was cancelled because of Chinese domestic political reasons in 1978. See Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 3; Hua Di, "One Superpower Worse that Two," Asia-Pacific Defense Reporter, September 1991, pp. 14-15; John Wilson Lewis and Hua Di, "Beijing's Defense Establishment: Solving the Arms Export Enigma," International Security, Fall 1992, pp. 5-40; Chang Chun Ik, Pukhan Haek-Missile Chŏnjaeng (Seoul: Sŏmundang, May 1999), pp. 248-249. [9] A high-level North Korean defector claims that Pyongyang leveraged its capture of the USS Pueblo and the hardware on board to bargain with Moscow and get a contract for the delivery of 20 Scud-B missiles. This report and any details about an agreement for subsequent deliveries or technology transfers have not been substantiated. Interview with North Korean defector by CNS senior research associate Daniel A. Pinkston, 1 November 2000, Seoul. [10] Yonhap News Agency, 24 June 1993, in "Defense Ministry Says Nodong-1 Test in May Successful," JPRS-TND-93-020, 28 June 1993, p. 1; ROK Ministry of Unification, Information Analysis Bureau, "Pukhan Missile Munjae Kwallyŏn Ch'amgojaryo," press release, 3 November 2000, p. 1; "Pukhan, Sajong 1 Ch'ŏn Kilometer Isang Missile Kaebalchung," Joongang Ilbo, 8 November 1991, <http://www.joins.com>; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 10; Chang Chun Ik, Pukhan Haek-Missile Chŏnjaeng (Seoul: Sŏmundang, May 1999), pp. 249, 266; Lee Jŏng Hun, "FROGesŏ Taepodong Kkaji: Pukhan Missile Game," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Ballistic Ambitions Ascendant," Jane's Defence Weekly, 10 April 1993, pp. 20, 22; Chang Chun Ik, Pukhan Haek-Missile Chŏnjaeng (Seoul: Sŏmundang, May 1999), pp. 249-250, 257, 266; Lee Jŏng Hun, "FROGesŏ Taepodong Kkaji: Pukhan Missile Game," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202; Hajime Ozu, Missile 2000: Reference Guide to World Missile Systems (Tokyo: Shinkigensha, 2000), p. 95; "Ballistic Missile Threat Evolves," International Defense Review, Vol. 33, No. 10, 1 October 2000, in Lexis-Nexis, <http://www.lexis-nexis.com>. [11] For reports of North Korea's initial production of an "indigenous Scud-B," see Yun Dŏk Min, "Mi-Puk Missile Hyŏpsangŭi Hyŏnhwanggwa Chŏnmang" IFANS policy paper, 22 November 2000, p. 1; interview with Kim Kil Sŏn by CNS senior research associate Daniel A. Pinkston, 10 April 2001, Seoul; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 10; for information on bilateral North Korean-Iranian missile cooperation during this period, see Korean Central News Agency, 25 October and 26 October 1983, in "Iranian Prime Minister's Visit to North Korea," BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, 29 October 1983, in Lexis-Nexis, <http://www.lexis-nexis.com>; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "Ballistic Missile Development in Egypt," Jane's Intelligence Review, 1 October 1992, pp. 452-458; Joseph S. Bermudez, Jr., "A History of Ballistic Missile Development in the DPRK," Occasional Paper No. 2, Center for Nonproliferation Studies, November 1999, p. 10; Lee Jŏng Hun, "FROGesŏ Taepodong Kkaji: Pukhan Missile Game," Shindonga, August 1999, p. 202.
