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Updated August 2010
Introduction
Situated in a high conflict region, Israel possesses advanced conventional military capabilities, and has traditionally maintained a policy of opacity regarding any WMD programs. Israel is widely understood to possess nuclear weapons, but there is no open source consensus on whether it has active offensive chemical or biological weapons programs. Tel Aviv also possesses a sizeable arsenal of short and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and is alleged to have equipped its Dolphin-class submarines with nuclear-tipped submarine-launched cruise missiles. Israel is not a party to any of the major treaties governing WMD nonproliferation, including the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC). It has signed, but not ratified, the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
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Nuclear
Israel is widely understood to possess a sizeable nuclear arsenal, but maintains a policy of nuclear opacity. David Ben Gurion, Israel's first prime minister, clandestinely established the nuclear program in the late 1950s with French assistance, to meet what Israel viewed as an existential threat from its Arab neighbors. [1] The program is allegedly centered at the Negev Nuclear Research Center outside the town of Dimona, where a French-supplied plutonium production reactor went critical in the early 1960s. [2] Israel reportedly built its first primitive nuclear device in May 1967 in the run-up to the Six-Day War. [3] Based on estimates of the plutonium production capacity of the Dimona reactor, Israel is believed to have manufactured enough fissile material for between 100 and 300 nuclear warheads—it is unclear how much of this material has been fabricated into nuclear weapons. [4]
Officially, Israel has declared that it will not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East, but it remains a non-signatory to the NPT. Israel's presumed possession of nuclear weapons has led to an impasse in Middle East arms control negotiations, as Israeli officials assert that comprehensive peace in the region is a precondition to Israeli participation in a Middle East Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Free Zone. [5]
Biological
Israeli research related to biological weapons is centered at the Israeli Center for Biological Research (IIBR) in the town of Ness Ziona close to Tel Aviv. Although open source evidence suggests that Israel's biological weapons program is currently exclusively defensive in nature, Tel Aviv's program is too opaque for any certainty on this matter. [6] However, substantial evidence exists to suggest that Israel possessed an offensive biological weapons program in the past, probably to augment its deterrence capabilities during the developmental stages of its nuclear program. [7] Moreover, Israel's sophisticated biotechnology sector and alleged prior experience weaponizing biological agents suggest it possesses the capability to produce and stockpile biological weapons within a short period of time. [8]
Chemical
Israel has conducted significant research on the offensive and defensive aspects of chemical weapons, efforts that primarily take place at the Israeli Center for Biological Research (IIBR). [9] In 1955, Prime Minister Ben Gurion initiated a "crash" chemical weapons production program intended to provide Israel with a deterrence capability while it worked to acquire nuclear weapons. [10] According to Avner Cohen, "a near-consensus exists among experts--based on anecdotal evidence and intelligence leaks--that Israel developed, produced, stockpiled and perhaps even deployed chemical weapons at some point in its history." [11] Available evidence suggests that Israel does not currently have an offensive chemical weapons program or a chemical weapons arsenal. However, Jane's concludes that, given its sophisticated chemical industry, Israel could develop an offensive chemical weapons program within several months. [12] Israel has signed but not ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).
Missile
Israel's missile program began in the 1960s with French and later South African assistance, resulting in the solid-fueled Jericho ballistic missiles series. [13] Israel has since developed robust capabilities for indigenous missile production, and possesses a sophisticated arsenal of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and missile defense systems. While Tel Aviv is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), it abides by its guidelines.
The Israeli Military first deployed the short-range Jericho-1 (500 km range, 750-1,000kg payload) in 1973, following it with deployment of the more sophisticated Jericho-2 (1,500km range) in 1990. [14] First tested in January 2008, the Jericho-3 (Range 4,500km, Payload: 350kg), is reportedly a three-stage missile with MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles) capabilities. [15] It is unknown whether Israel has deployed or begun industrial production of the Jericho-3. Israel is widely suspected of modifying its three German-built Dolphin class submarines to deliver nuclear-tipped sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM), which would provide it with a second-strike capability. [16] Tel Aviv is also developing one of the world's most sophisticated theater missile defense systems—a four-layered concept, with systems designed to address threats with ranges from 4km to 40km (Iron Dome), up to 250km (David's Sling), and above 200km (Arrow 2 and Arrow 3)—further supplemented by the U.S. Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC-2) system to defend against cruise missiles. [17]
Sources:
[1] Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals
(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005) p. 264.
[2] Zaki Shalom, Israel's Nuclear Option (Brighton: Sussex Academic Press, 2005) pp. 6-10.
[3] Avner Cohen, "Crossing the Threshold: The Untold
Nuclear Dimension of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War and Its Contemporary Lessons,"
Arms Control Today 37 (June 2007), www.armscontrol.org.
[4] "Nuclear, Israel, Key Facts," Jane's CBRN Assessments, 1 December 2009, www.janes.com.
[5] Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar,
Deadly Arsenals: Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Threats, Second Edition
(Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005), p. 267.
[6] Jeanne Guillemin, Biological Weapons (New York: Columbia
University Press, 2005), p. 151.
[7] For example, Jonathan Tucker writes,
"According to journalist Seymour Hersh, in 1960 the CIA tracked Israeli
scientists to a French chemical and biological weapons testing site in the
Algerian desert and concluded that the Israelis were 'looking at CBW as a
stopgap until they got the bomb.'" Jonathan B. Tucker, "Motivations For and
Against Proliferation: The Case of the Middle East," in Biological Warfare:
Modern Offense and Defense, ed. Raymond A. Zilinskas (Boulder: Lynne Rienner
Publishers, 2000) p. 40. On historical evidence of a possible Israeli offensive
biological weapons program, see pp. 34-37 in: Magnus Normark, Anders Lindblad,
Anders Norqvist, Björn Sandström, and Louise Waldenström, "Israel
and WMD: Incentives and Capabilities," FOI-Swedish Defence Research Agency,
December 2005, www.foi.se.
[8] A 2005 report published by the FOI-Swedish
Defence Research Agency concluded that: "Israel does not stockpile or produce BW
in large-scale today. However, we assess that Israel has a breakout capability
for biological weapons..." Magnus Normark, Anders Lindblad, Anders Norqvist,
Björn Sandström, and Louise Waldenström, "Israel and WMD:
Incentives and Capabilities," FOI-Swedish Defence Research Agency, December
2005, p. 38, www.foi.se. See also: "Biological, Israel, Production Capability,"
Jane's CBRN Assessments, 24 July 2009, www.janes.com.
[9] Anthony H. Cordesman, "Israeli Weapons of Mass Destruction," Center for Strategic and
International Studies, 2 June 2008, p.6, www.csis.org.
[10] Avner Cohen, "Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms Control,"
The Nonproliferation Review, Fall/Winter 2001, p. 40.
[11] Avner Cohen, "Israel and Chemical/Biological Weapons: History, Deterrence, and Arms
Control," The Nonproliferation Review, Fall/Winter 2001, p. 39.
[12] "Chemical, Israel, Production Capability," Jane's CBRN Assessments, 23
July 2009, www.janes.com.
[13] Joseph Cirincione, Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam
Rajkumar, Deadly Arsenals (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, 2005) p. 261.
[14] "Military: A new ballistic missile
for Israel?," Stratfor, 17 January 2008, www.stratfor.com.
[15] See: Doug Richardson, "Israel launches two-stage ballistic missile," Jane's
Missiles and Rockets, 4 February 2008, www.janes.com; and "Military: A new
ballistic missile for Israel?," Stratfor, 17 January 2008, www.stratfor.com.
[16] Anthony H. Cordesman, "Israeli Weapons of Mass
Destruction," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 June 2008, p.8, www.csis.org.
[17] See: Yaakov Katz, "IAF to conduct first test of Arrow 3
early next year," The Jerusalem Post, 27 May 2010, www.jpost.com; Alon
Ben-David, "Adapt or die: Israel Defence Force," Jane's Defence Weekly, 1
May 2008, www.janes.com; David Eshel, "Examining Israel's BMD Options,"
Jane's Intelligence Review, 1 September 2000, www.janes.com; and "Israel:
Anti-rocket system succeeds in tests," Stratfor, 7 January 2010,
www.stratfor.com.
This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and
does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently
verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2010 by MIIS.
