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Updated February 2010
Introduction
India regards its nuclear and long-range power projection programs as instruments for maintaining strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific region. These capabilities support New Delhi's claims to great power status, while also demonstrating that India's technical prowess is equal to that of developed countries. Meanwhile, India continues to reject the existing nuclear nonproliferation regime on the grounds that it perpetuates an unjust distinction between a small group of states that are allowed nuclear weapons, and the rest of the world's states that are denied this right. India has also been highly critical of the nuclear weapon states' failure to meet their nuclear disarmament commitments.
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Nuclear
India embarked on a nuclear power program in 1958 and a nuclear explosives program in 1968. Following a test of a nuclear device in May 1974, and five additional nuclear weapon-related tests in May 1998, India formally declared itself a nuclear weapon state. New Delhi is likely to have manufactured weapons grade plutonium for at least 100 warheads.[1, 13] A 2007 report estimated that 50-60 warheads had been assembled so far.[2] According to Indian government sources, India is capable of building a range of nuclear weapon systems ranging from "…low yields to 200 kilotons, involving fission, boosted-fission, and two-stage thermonuclear designs." As of 2007, rough estimates put India's highly enriched uranium stockpile at 0.2 metric tons.[3] India is not a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Although India is increasingly concentrating on missiles for nuclear delivery roles (see below for section on missiles), aircraft such as Mirage 2000, Jaguar remain integral parts of its nuclear delivery force.[18]
India and the United States announced a nuclear cooperation initiative in July 2005 that would allow New Delhi to participate in international nuclear trade, under certain conditions. Several steps had to be undertaken at various forums before India could actually operationalize this agreement. In 2008, New Delhi negotiated a safe-guards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a pre-condition for finalization of the nuclear agreement with the United States and achieving approval from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) for participation in international nuclear trade.[4] Subsequently, in September 2008, the NSG removed the ban on India's participation in international nuclear trade. In October 2008, India and the United States signed the bilateral '123' agreement after approval from the U.S. Congress. Then, in March 2009, the IAEA approved the Additional Protocol for India. Subsequent to the September 2008 NSG waiver, India received the first batch of uranium fuel from France in March 2009, with regular supplies expected from French and Russian companies. [14] After the NSG waiver, New Delhi had concluded a nuclear cooperation agreement with France in October 2008.[17]
Biological
Although some intelligence estimates suggest that India possesses biological weapons, there is very limited open-source information available about a possible Indian biological weapon program. India has defensive biological weapon capabilities and has conducted research on countering various diseases, including plague, brucellosis, and smallpox. India also has an extensive and advanced pharmaceutical industry and is therefore technically capable of developing biological weapons. India ratified the Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1974.
Chemical
After many years of denying the existence of a chemical weapon program, India disclosed in June 1997 that it possessed chemical weapons. Few details are publicly available concerning Indian chemical weapon stockpiles, although Chinese researchers suggest that India possesses 1,000 tons of chemical weapon agents, mostly mustard agent, located at five chemical weapon production and storage facilities. Under the terms of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which India signed in 1993 and ratified in September 1996, India destroyed about 75 percent of its stockpile by the end of 2006. Reports in January 2008 stated that India had destroyed 93 percent of Category 1 chemical weapons stockpile, and must destroy the remaining stockpile by April 2009.[6] Subsequently, according to February 2009 reports from the Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), India had "progressed to destroy" 98.72% of the total amount of declared Category I chemical weapons and plans to complete the total destruction by April 29, 2009.[15]
Missile
For more than two decades, India has sought to develop and deploy ballistic and other missiles. India has inducted three nuclear capable ballistic missiles as of 2008 – Prithvi I (range 150 km), Agni I (700 km), and Agni II (2000 km), although it is not clear if the last two are fully operational.[7, 18] A longer range missile, the Agni-III, with a range of over 3000 km, was tested successfully in April 2007 and May 2008. Various reports have also stated that a 5000 km ballistic missile, Agni V, is also in the pipeline and would be tested in another four years. So far, there is no indication that the government has given approval for development of an inter-continental ballistic missile.[8] Delhi has also taken steps toward achieving submarine launched ballistic missile capability, with the first test of the K-15 (Sagarika) taking place in February 2008 from a submerged barge.[9] India is also in the process of developing newer missile systems. The latest project is the Shourya (Valor), which was successfully tested in November 2008. This nuclear-capable missile aims to enhance India's second-strike capability.[16] Also under development is the sea-based Dhanush, which has been tested several times in recent years.
Apart from ballistic missile systems, a key focus in recent years has been the cruise missile. Indian defense scientists have made substantial progress in the development and deployment of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, jointly developed with Russia. The naval (ship-based) and army versions of the missile have already been inducted. The submarine-launched version of the BrahMos is currently under development as is an air-launched version, which will eventually be installed on the Indian Air Force's Sukhoi-30MI fighters by the end of 2009.[10] The BrahMos Aerospace company is now focusing on the hypersonic versions of the missiles and some laboratory tests have already taken place. A second cruise missile, the Nirbhay (Fearless), was announced in 2007; this will be a subsonic missile with a range of 1000 km.
In general, Indian defense planners are seeking to bring about changes in the way missile programs have been run, such as by exploring avenues for foreign collaboration in some specific systems. In 2008, New Delhi announced the end of the Integrated Guided Missile Development Program (IGMDP) which had been started in 1983. The focus now will be on serial production of missiles developed under this program.[11] The IGMDP included the Prithvi and Agni series, the Akash (surface-to-air), Trishul (surface-to-air), and the Nag (anti-tank).
Increasingly, India is also concentrating on acquiring missile defense capability through indigenous development and some external inputs. Since 2006, India has tested components of its missile defense system thrice, the last one being in March 2009. [19] At the same time, discussions on missile defense cooperation have taken place with companies and governments from the United States, Israel, Russia. [20]
India is not a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR); but in July 2005 it agreed to adhere to MTCR guidelines.[12] In November 2002 it had rejected a draft of the International Code of Conduct (HCOC) on ballistic missile proliferation on grounds that it is discriminatory and interferes with the peaceful uses of space technology.
Sources:
[1]"India's Nuclear Forces, 2007' The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2007, pp. 74-78, thebulletin.metapress.com
[2] Ibid.
[3] "Global Fissile Material Report 2007," International Panel on Fissile Materials, pg. 10, fissilematerials.org.
[4] "Nuclear Verification: The Conclusion of Safeguards Agreements and Additional Protocols," (Agreement Text), International Atomic Energy Agency, July 9, 2008, www.isis-online.org.
[5] Ajey Lele, "CWC's First Decade," CBW Magazine, Sept-Dec 2007, Vol. 1, No. 1, pg. 13, www.idsa.in.
[6]Sumir Kaul, "India's 93 per cent Chemical Weapons Destroyed; Rest by Apr '09," OutlookIndia.com, January 20, 2008, www.outlookindia.com.
[7] "India's Nuclear Forces, 2007."
[8] Josy Joseph, "Govt Allots Rs. 2,500 Cr for Agni-V," Daily News & Analysis, June 16, 2008, www.dnaindia.com; T.S. Subramanian, "Full of Fire," Frontline, Vol. 25, Issue 1, May 24-June 6, 2008.
[9] Rahul Bedi, "Sagarika Test Firing Heralds India's SLBM Capability," Jane's Navy International, March 1, 2008.
[10] Josy Joseph, "Navy Wants BrahMos in Submarines," Daily News & Abalysis, June 21, 2008; T.S. Subramanian, "Cruising Along," Frontline, Vol. 24, Issue 13, June 30-July 13, 2007.
[11] Sujan Dutta, "Blast-Off From a Missile Era," The Telegraph, February 15, 2008, www.telegraphindia.com.
[12] "Arms Control and Proliferation Profile: India" Fact Sheet, Arms Control Association, November 2007, www.armscontrol.org.
[13] "Indian Nuclear Forces," SIPRI Yearbook 2008, (Oxford University Press: New York, NY, 2008), pg. 389.
[14] "India's 1st N-Fuel Supply This Week," The Asian Age, March 31, 2009.
[15] "Status of Chemical Demilitarization As At February 2009," Statement by OPCW Director General, Organization for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, February 20, 2009, www.opcw.org.
[16] Manu Pubby, "India Unveils N-Capable Shourya," The Indian Express, November 13, 2008, www.indianexpress.com.
[17] Harish Khare, "India, France Sign Nuclear Agreement," The Hindu, October 1, 2008, www.hindu.com.
[18] Robert S. Norris & Hans M. Kristensen, "Indian Nuclear Forces, 2008," The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2008, http://thebulletin.metapress.com.
[19] Deepak Kumar, "India Tests Missile System for the Third Time," The Epoch Times, March 11, 2009, www.theepochtimes.com.
[20] Siddharth Srivastava, "India and the US Talk Missile Defense," The Asia Times, January 15, 2009, www.atimes.com.
This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for
Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and
does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently
verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, agents. Copyright © 2010 by MIIS.
