The United States is expected to remove all Peacekeeper missiles from service this year, contributing to a global decline in deployed nuclear warheads (U.S. Air Force photo). Global Nuclear Stockpiles Decreasing, Experts Report in Study By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An estimated 13,470 nuclear weapons are deployed worldwide by eight countries, with another 14,000 weapons in reserve, according to an article by two experts published in an annual survey of global armaments (see GSN, July 29). Writing in the 2005 edition of the SIPRI Yearbook, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute this month, Natural Resources Defense Council consultant Hans Kristensen and SIPRI researcher Shannon Kile found that the number of deployed weapons decreased by more than 2,500 from the 16,033 they estimated last year...Full Story

New Council Seeks to Head Off Misuse of Science By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A new international council of science organizations will initially focus on improving biological risk assessments and on harmonizing global security standards for facilities working with sensitive biological materials, a founder of the group said today (see GSN, April 29, 2004)...Full Story

Israel Disputes U.S. Intelligence on Iran, Predicts Nuclear Capability Within Three Years Israel believes Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon within three years, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 2)...Full Story

	Wednesday, August 17, 2005

Experts See Setbacks for U.S. “Axis of Evil” Efforts The Bush administration’s policy aimed at taking on WMD-related threats posed by countries labeled as part of an “axis of evil” more than three years ago has suffered several recent setbacks, the Washington Post reported today (see GSN, June 1). In particular, the recess of North Korean nuclear negotiations without agreement last week and Tehran’s decision to resume uranium conversion have discouraged Bush’s national security team, according to the Post. “These are difficult issues,” national security adviser Stephen Hadley said last week. “They’re going to take some time. But the main thing is to keep the international community focused.” Hadley said there was reason for hope regarding North Korea, given that Pyongyang returned to the six-nation talks after a 13-month boycott. “They were basically testing us to see if they could split the (other) five and they failed,” Hadley said. “Similarly now, the Iranians are trying to test [France, Germany and the United Kingdom] to see if they can split them.” Some Bush supporters believe a harder line is needed. “The present course cannot be followed forever,” said David Frum, a former Bush speechwriter who helped produce the term “axis of evil” for those countries seen to be seeking WMD. “The president made his statement — that he will not permit that — so now he has to find a course of action.” The Iran and North Korea nuclear standoffs “show the difficulty in stopping determined proliferators without using force,” said Robert Einhorn, a former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation in the Clinton administration. “We are not prepared to use military options in either place, but we also have not come up with a combination of incentives and disincentives to get the job done,” Einhorn said. Some analysts were pessimistic that a resolution would be worked out during Bush’s tenure. “I think in five years we’ll be in the same stalemate we are now, at best,” said Clifford Kupchan, who studies Iran at the Eurasia Group. “Neither Pyongyang nor Tehran wants to pick a fight with the 800-pound gorilla because they’ll lose. On the other hand, the 800-pound gorilla doesn’t have a lot of options right now, either” (Baker/Linzer, Washington Post, Aug. 17). Back to top       Singapore Hosts PSI Exercise “Deep Sabre” Southeast Asia’s first maritime drills aimed at countering WMD trafficking opened today in Singapore, with 13 nations participating, Reuters reported (see GSN, Aug. 5). The exercise, code-named “Deep Sabre,” was sponsored by the U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative, a program aimed at interdicting illicit WMD-related shipments on the high seas (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Aug. 17). Today’s drill involved the search for a tanker suspected of carrying chemical weapons precursors.  Participants detected and tracked the Libyan-flagged vessel with aircraft and ships, the Associated Press reported. “Once located, a request was made for the ship to voluntarily divert to port for a search,” Singapore’s Defense Ministry said in a statement. “When the ship’s master refused, flag state consent was sought, and given, for the ship to be interdicted and diverted to Singapore for the port search,” the statement says. A Singaporean navy diving team then boarded the suspect vessel. Other Singaporean military units and officials from the Japanese Coast Guard and Australian Customs Service followed, according to AP (Associated Press/Sydney Morning Herald, Aug. 17). There is an “extreme likelihood” of proliferation occurring in the Straits of Malacca between Malaysia and Indonesia, British Royal Navy Commander Richard Powell told Reuters. “The vast majority of proliferation takes place at sea. Singapore is right on the edge of a choke point through the Malacca Strait. It is geographically important,” Powell said (Reuters, Aug. 17). Back to top

Global Nuclear Stockpiles Decreasing, Experts Report in Study By David Ruppe Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — An estimated 13,470 nuclear weapons are deployed worldwide by eight countries, with another 14,000 weapons in reserve, according to an article by two experts published in an annual survey of global armaments (see GSN, July 29). Writing in the 2005 edition of the SIPRI Yearbook, published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute this month, Natural Resources Defense Council consultant Hans Kristensen and SIPRI researcher Shannon Kile found that the number of deployed weapons decreased by more than 2,500 from the 16,033 they estimated last year. The number of total nuclear weapons, deployed and nondeployed, also decreased from approximately 31,500 estimated in 2004 to roughly 27,600 this year, according to a comparison of the two yearbooks. The decrease was largely due to decisions by the United States and Russia in recent years to eliminate significant numbers of warheads from their arsenals, the article says. Meanwhile, the authors attribute the decrease in the number of deployed warheads, from 16,033 to 13,470, mainly to U.S. and Russian implementation of the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and the 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty. However, “all eight states continue to maintain and modernize their arsenals and insist, publicly or covertly, that nuclear weapons play a crucial and enduring role for their national security,” the article states. Russia Leads Warhead Count Russia has the most estimated deployed warheads, 7,360, according to the article. That includes 3,980 strategic warheads on ICBMs, submarines and bombers, and 3,380 nonstrategic warheads on aircraft and at sea, it says. The United States came in second at 4,896, with an estimated 4,216 strategic warheads on ICBMs, planes and submarines, and 680 nonstrategic warheads for delivery as gravity bombs by aircraft and by Tomahawk cruise missiles from submarines, it says. Next is China with an estimated 400 deployed warheads, 120 of those estimated as nonstrategic, France with 348, Israel about 200, the United Kingdom with 185, Pakistan with 30 to 50 and India with 30 to 40. The authors define nonstrategic warheads as those Russian and U.S. warheads not included under the counting rules of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty and suspected Chinese battlefield weapons, though evidence on the existence of the latter is “limited and contradictory,” according to Kile. Indian, Pakistani and Israeli stockpiles are thought to be only partially deployed and there is limited and often contradictory information on their arsenals, the authors wrote. The United Kingdom is said to be the only member of the five nuclear weapons states recognized under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that is not known to have new nuclear weapons systems under development. “Before long, however, the U.K. will need to make a decision on whether to begin development of a replacement for the Trident [submarine-launched] system,” they wrote. China, India and Pakistan may increase their arsenals “somewhat over the next decade,” the piece says. North Korea, which other experts have said possesses fissile material to produce as many as eight nuclear weapons, is not included in the list of nuclear forces. “We’ve had a long discussion about that. We concluded that there simply wasn’t enough evidence in the public literature to justify including North Korea in the table of nuclear forces,” Kile said in an interview today. Back to top       Israel Disputes U.S. Intelligence on Iran, Predicts Nuclear Capability Within Three Years Israel believes Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon within three years, Agence France-Presse reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 2). “Barring an unexpected delay, Iran is going to become nuclear capable in 2008 and not in 10 years as was recently reported in the American press,” Gen. Aharon Zeevi, Israeli military intelligence chief, told lawmakers yesterday in a closed-door meeting. Zeevi said the report could be a leak meant to justify lack of action on Iran’s nuclear program while the United States focuses on events in Iraq. “If there is no response from the international community, the Iranians are going to overcome the technical difficulties in producing enriched uranium and will be able to produce the bomb,” he said. Iranian officials rejected European Union overtures and resumed uranium conversion this month “because they are getting the impression that the United States and the Europeans are spineless,” a senior official from Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s office told AFP earlier this month (Agence France-Presse/SpaceWar.com, Aug. 16). Meanwhile, Tehran today warned France, Germany and the United Kingdom not to make any harsh decisions about Iran in next month’s International Atomic Energy Agency meeting, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported. “The harsher the Europeans play the game, the more Iran will get decisive on pursuing other nuclear projects,” said Mohammad Saeedi, deputy chief of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization deputy (Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Aug. 17). Elsewhere, Pakistan on Monday endorsed Iran’s right to a peaceful nuclear energy program, the Pakistan Times reported. “Tehran has the legitimate right as signatory to the [Nuclear] Nonproliferation Treaty, to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Naeem Khan (Maria Khan, Pakistan Times, Aug. 17). Back to top       North Korea Could Return to NPT, Russian Envoy Says North Korean leader Kim Jong Il said his country could return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, a Russian envoy said today (see GSN, Aug. 12). Kim “does not rule out North Korea’s return to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in the absence of threats from the United States,” said Konstantin Pulikovsky, presidential envoy to the Russian Far East, who held several meetings with Kim this week. “He said that he doesn’t need a single nuclear warhead if the United States drops its threats toward his country," Interfax quoted Pulikovsky as saying (Henry Meyer, Associated Press/Yahoo!News, Aug. 17). Meanwhile, delegates from Pyongyang met today with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun, Reuters reported. The communist party representatives were the most senior North Korean officials to visit the presidential office in more than 10 years, according to a South Korean Unification Ministry official (Jack Kim, Reuters, Aug. 17). U.S. officials engaged in six-party talks have maintained contact with their Japanese and South Korean counterparts since the recess and plan to talk with other participating nations, Yonhap reported today. Assistant Secretary of State Christopher “Hill has been in contact with South Korean and Japanese counterparts by telephone on a number of occasions since his return from Beijing,” said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack (Yonhap/BBC Monitoring, Aug. 17). Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Robert Joseph is scheduled to visit South Korea today, Yonhap reported. Joseph is expected to spend one day in Seoul discussing the North Korea nuclear standoff, said a South Korean Foreign Ministry official (Yonhap II/BBC Monitoring, Aug. 16). Back to top       Work Begins on Legislative Changes Needed to Implement U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement The Bush administration has begun work on legislative changes necessary to implement a civil nuclear cooperation agreement signed last month by the United States and India, the Financial Express reported Monday (see GSN, July 29). The White House hopes to complete these changes before the 2006 midterm congressional elections, according to an administration official. Government officials said U.S. nuclear experts are reviewing Section 129 of the U.S. Atomic Energy Act and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of 1978, both of which must be amended if nuclear energy technology is to be transferred to India. India presently cannot receive this technology because it is not a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, according to the Express. Opinions of Nuclear Suppliers Group members on the deal will likely be evaluated (Huma Siddiqui, Financial Express, Aug. 15). Back to top       Russia Successfully Tests ICBM Russian President Vladimir Putin watched as a submarine fired an SS-N-23 strategic missile yesterday in the Barents Sea, Deutsche Presse-Agentur reported (see GSN, Aug. 11). The missile was launched from the submerged vessel and successfully hit a target nearly 5,000 miles away in the Kura test range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, according to Russian military officials (Deutsch Presse-Agentur, Aug. 17). Back to top       Peacekeeper Deactivation in Final Stages All U.S. Peacekeeper strategic missiles, capable of carrying 10 nuclear warheads each, are scheduled to be deactivated by mid-September, the Star-Tribune reported yesterday (see GSN, June 2). Smaller Minuteman 3 missiles are expected to remain in the U.S. arsenal, according to military officials. The Minuteman 3 can carry three warheads and travel to any location in the world in 30 minutes, according to the Star-Tribune. “Dismantling the Peacekeeper is exactly the right thing to do,” said 90th Space Wing commander Col. Mike Carey, who is stationed at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Cheyenne, Wyo. “Its deactivation is a victory for deterrence.” Reporters earlier this month were permitted to visit one of the three remaining missile sites in Wyoming and witness removal of guidance and re-entry systems.  Until deactivation of the 50-missile Peacekeeper force is completed, Air Force personnel will continue to be prepared to launch. “All of our remaining missiles must be ready to launch at any time, up until the last missile is taken out,” said Lt. Col. David Bliesner. "Once the launch order has been verified by two different launch commands, there is no possibility of recall.” The Minuteman 3 provides the same deterrence as the Peacekeeper, even though the Minuteman is less powerful, according to the Star-Tribune. “The world is a much more complicated place” than it was during the Cold War, said Air Force Maj. Gen. Frank Klotz. “The number of threats is more varied” (John Morgan, Star-Tribune, Aug. 16). Back to top

New Council Seeks to Head Off Misuse of Science By Joe Fiorill Global Security Newswire WASHINGTON — A new international council of science organizations will initially focus on improving biological risk assessments and on harmonizing global security standards for facilities working with sensitive biological materials, a founder of the group said today (see GSN, April 29, 2004). The 4-month-old International Council for the Life Sciences has so far accepted “a handful” of biotechnology companies as members and aims to hold its first business meeting early next year with a membership of 25 to 30 entities, Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute President Michael Moodie said in an interview. Government and international agencies are also eligible as nonvoting “associate members.” Besides such practical activities as recruiting members and drawing up bylaws, the council’s founders are determining the substance of its first activities. Moodie said two action groups are likely to be formed on risk assessment and security standards. “There’s clearly the need both to refine risk assessments and to broaden the understanding of the nature of the risks in this area,” said Moodie, who in the early 1990s led chemical- and biological-weapon negotiations at the now-defunct U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. As for facilities security, he said, countries generally use the same four biosafety levels in classifying sensitive materials, but they observe no common standards with respect to what security measures are appropriate to each level. The council was created by Moodie’s institute and the International Institute for Strategic Studies-United States. It said at its founding in April that its aim was to “safeguard the enormous benefits of the life sciences and their future contributions to quality of life around the world by reducing global biological risks.” Members sign a charter promising to implement certain “best practices” in a bid to improve safety and security. In addition, the council said it would serve as an objective source of information about risks in the life sciences and would facilitate partnerships among governments, international organizations and private organizations to strengthen biosafety. The council is trying to secure funding for its work beyond the small fee it assesses of each member. Moodie said the group hopes to draw on funds from a consortium of foundations, including the Nuclear Threat Initiative, which has provided money for the council’s conception over the past three years. Moodie argues in a new paper this month for stepping up efforts to arrive at a common international approach to bioterrorism risks. “The biological challenge is relatively new, and the United States and its friends and allies have neither a commonly accepted view of the problem nor a shared strategy to respond effectively,” he writes in the paper, which is one in an ongoing series of reports on specific areas of policy commissioned by the nonprofit Center for the Study of the Presidency. The absence of such common ground so far is due in part to a still-developing sense of urgency about the problem, he said today. Until recently, Moodie said, biological risks were seen as “an interesting theoretical possibility” that “didn’t really get in your face … in the same way that the nuclear challenge did.” “The sense of immediacy, if not urgency, about the biological problem has grown in the last decade, and there’s probably still not the same sense that existed at the dawn of the nuclear age,” he said, “but it’s a much more broadly shared view that this is a potential problem than it was even 30 years ago, when the Biological Weapons Convention was concluded.” Moodie writes in the paper that countries should develop better frameworks for cooperation as they seek a common “intellectual infrastructure” for dealing with biological threats. Organizations such as the Group of Eight, Interpol and the World Health Organization, he writes, “either attend to narrow aspects of such problems or lack the follow-through to match their rhetoric,” while “some potentially useful international actors, such as NATO, have played almost no role at all.” Moodie writes that countries should agree that “‘biological threats to security’ are not problems to be solved but risks to be managed,” with “the potential for misuse in the life sciences” remaining “a permanent reality”; that “the scope of risk created by deliberate misuse can be reduced” and that “no single instrument is sufficient” for doing so; and that “risk management is not and cannot be a job for governments alone.” Private-sector and public officials should give more attention to the potential for misuse of science, Moodie writes. “The attitudes of those working in the life sciences contrast sharply with the nuclear community,” he writes. “Physicists since the beginning of the nuclear age, including Albert Einstein, understood the dangers of atomic power and the need to participate actively in managing these risks. The life-sciences sectors lag in this regard. Many neglect thinking about the potential risks of their work.” [EDITOR'S NOTE: The Nuclear Threat Initiative is the sole sponsor of Global Security Newswire, which is published independently by National Journal Group, Inc.] Back to top       NIH Employee Indicted on Anthrax Charges A U.S. National Institutes of Health employee was indicted yesterday by a federal grand jury in Miami on terrorism charges, the Miami Herald reported (see GSN, Aug. 5). The charges stem from a telephone message Michelle Ledgister allegedly left with the Broward County, Fla., Property Appraiser’s Officer threatening anthrax infestation. The U.S. District Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida said Ledgister violated the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Act of 2004, according to the Herald. Ledgister is next due to appear in court on Aug. 24 in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (Roberto Santiago, Miami Herald, Aug. 16). Back to top       Indiana Facility Gets Anthrax Detection System The U.S. Postal Service processing center in Fort Wayne, Ind., has received equipment capable of detecting anthrax in the mail, The News-Sentinel reported yesterday (see GSN, Aug. 5). Two Biohazard Detection Systems are scheduled to be operational by Sept. 9. Funding for the systems, each of which costs $150,000, came through a federal homeland security grant (Nicole Lee, The News-Sentinel, Aug. 16).   Back to top

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